Does anyone else not believe for one second "the fiscal cliff"?

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Posted 11/27/2012 by raindancer in NSBR Board
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raindancer
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Posted: 11/27/2012 7:46:51 AM
I'm so over our politicians playing us and the media and their drama. And I don't for one minute believe we are going over this supposed fiscal cliff. I think it drives media ratings, and gives politicians ammo for later when they want reelected

Anyone else feel like we are being played?


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momof1child
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Posted: 11/27/2012 7:54:10 AM
As a Canadian looking in from the outside, yes - there is a "fiscal cliff" approaching. Reading The Economist and other financial material there will be a "fiscal cliff".

The severity of this cliff will be dependant on how quickly the American Government will be able to provide some kind of cushion, to lessen the fall.

raindancer
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Posted: 11/27/2012 7:56:15 AM
I'm not arguing there is a concern I'm just saying that we aren't going to go over it. It's not going to happen. They cry wolf all the time, if it actually happens I will be shocked. Genuinely.
I should have been more clear.


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Dalai Mama
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Posted: 11/27/2012 7:58:46 AM
Another Canadian, but I think you've been on the fiscal cliff since autumn 2008. The only thing that has been keeping you from falling over is that other countries still thought your markers were good.


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not2peased
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Posted: 11/27/2012 8:00:32 AM
I think it's entirely possible we can go over

that said, psychologically it will damage markets quite a bit but the cliff isn't really a cliff-more of a speed bump. a deal will be made-the only question is before or after we go over



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MergeLeft
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Posted: 11/27/2012 8:01:36 AM
I'm more concerned about having our credit rating downgraded again than I am about a potential increase in taxes.



raindancer
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Posted: 11/27/2012 8:04:15 AM
I agree with that dalimama, it's been a disaster the whole time, and the amount of money we owe China? Very concerning. I guess I just think this latest drama is not going to do anything to the every day lives of most people. The politicians aren't going to let this happen. Maybe I'm wrong.


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raindancer
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Posted: 11/27/2012 8:08:26 AM
I just heard warren buffet with Charlie rose say he thinks it will be worked out just fine and that he wouldn't sell any stock. So I guess Im in good company.


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Sarah*H
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Posted: 11/27/2012 8:10:52 AM
I don't know, I suspect they will come to a deal but they let the politics get so bad last year that our credit rating was dropped so I'm not sure I have a lot of confidence in their ability to avert fiscal mayhem.

It's the weeks long debate over Grover Norquist that is driving me batty. It's the Arena question on Politico this morning. Last I checked, Grover Norquist was never elected to anything so why won't the media stop talking about him and stop bugging politicians about his stupid pledge?



scoobers
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Posted: 11/27/2012 8:21:07 AM
The fiscal cliff is very real and the risk to this country is huge.



Dalai Mama
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Posted: 11/27/2012 8:23:07 AM

The fiscal cliff is very real and the risk to this country is huge.
Yes, but it's been a huge risk for years. Why is such a kerfuffle being made about it now?


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raindancer
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Posted: 11/27/2012 8:53:06 AM

The fiscal cliff is very real and the risk to this country is huge.


What does that even mean? I mean, I've been watching the news. I've heard the politicians warning the "other" side about how if "they" don't cooperate it will be very, very bad!

But what has changed about that since Bush was in office? And what exactly does it mean?

I don't think anyone really knows, to be honest. I don't think the US actually thinks we could ever fall. Arrogant and dangerous, to be sure, but true. (I think we could and will fall eventually, the mighty always do)


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Posted: 11/27/2012 8:57:45 AM

I don't think anyone really knows, to be honest. I don't think the US actually thinks we could ever fall. Arrogant and dangerous, to be sure, but true. (I think we could and will fall eventually, the mighty always do)


I totally agree with this as well.. and how sad

According to the news last night.. and it sounds like we ALL will be paying a LOT (not just the "rich"... I even heard "mortgage interest" being involved (less deductibles??).. we are going to pay big time.. EVERYONE will be affected...

Charabby
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Posted: 11/27/2012 9:00:53 AM
I don't know what is meant by "going over a fiscal cliff" in practical terms so I have a hard time working up anxiety over the concept.


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*maureen*
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Posted: 11/27/2012 9:03:41 AM


But what has changed about that since Bush was in office? And what exactly does it mean?



Double the national debt and three years without a budget. No one is holding congress accountable and so were heading down the path of trouble. As a nation, we need to suck it up, cut spending, pay more in taxes and get our house in order.

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Posted: 11/27/2012 9:03:51 AM
The fiscal cliff is an automatically triggered cut in the budget across the board and rollback of all the Bush & Obama tax cuts. The politicians gave themselves this deadline to resolve the last debt ceiling debate. They created a Super Congress which was supposed to come up with compromises acceptable to both parties. Super Congress failed, concluding its work by saying that no bipartisan agreement was possible. Thus, we're left with this looming deadline when all the cuts and tax increases are scheduled to take effect.



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Posted: 11/27/2012 9:04:45 AM
I'm not sure some of you understand what the fiscal cliff is. It hasn't been around for years, it was put together in 2011 by lawmakers as part of the budget control act. It was created to FORCE themselves to come to an agreement on a budget together.

It's that bad, the worst scenario for both sides if it's crossed.


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Posted: 11/27/2012 9:12:48 AM
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Posted: 11/27/2012 9:26:07 AM
I think they will come up with a plan if for no other reason then job security.

However the big question is when. On the business news this morning I heard the lack of a plan could impact the amount of holiday spending which is not a good thing for the economy.

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Posted: 11/27/2012 9:41:11 AM
Oh I think we are going to go over it for no other reason than that our congress appears to be incompetent when it comes to the budget and we have foolishly allowed it. How bad the landing will be seems to be the great unknown. I'm guessing how bad it is depends on who you are. The middle class will probably come out the worst. They always do.

I'm really concerned because we are going to have to sell our house in the spring and who knows what the market and interest rates will be like by then.


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TinCin
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Posted: 11/27/2012 9:41:34 AM
It's not something I will get excited about since there is not a damned thing I can do about it. The representatives will do what they do, or not, and I will live with it. That's how it goes.


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Posted: 11/27/2012 9:43:45 AM

I don't know what is meant by "going over a fiscal cliff" in practical terms so I have a hard time working up anxiety over the concept.




But what has changed about that since Bush was in office? And what exactly does it mean?
------------------

Double the national debt and three years without a budget. No one is holding congress accountable and so were heading down the path of trouble. As a nation, we need to suck it up, cut spending, pay more in taxes and get our house in order.


Yes!

I'm amazed at how many people have no clue what is going on.

This LINK pulls together what the Fiscal Cliff entails.


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SabrinaM
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Posted: 11/27/2012 9:47:41 AM

On the business news this morning I heard the lack of a plan could impact the amount of holiday spending which is not a good thing for the economy.
Holiday spending has been fantastic. Some of the financial gurus think it's because people are spending money they'd otherwise be paying taxes on in 2013. I have to wonder how many of these people who are spending like crazy are going deeper into DEBT. A lot of people in this country love buying shit on revolving credit.


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raindancer
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Posted: 11/27/2012 9:55:34 AM
Montana cowgirl I would love to know what "worst case scenario" actually means


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Posted: 11/27/2012 10:02:16 AM

Anyone else feel like we are being played?

Yes, and even if we're not, I don't care anymore. The drama of Congress compiled on top of the drama of the 24-hour news media is exhausting.

Every day I swear this will be the last day I read Politico, the Huffington Post, and the Drudge Report. Every. Single. Day.

It really is a waste of time reading all this crap. I need to spend my days in happiness and creativity. Not wasted on this #@$. There isn't anything I can do about it except watch it unfold. Waste of time. I'd be better off watching old reruns of Star Trek or something. Why can't I stop???



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raindancer
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Posted: 11/27/2012 10:02:39 AM
Double the national debt and three years without a budget. No one is holding congress accountable and so were heading down the path of trouble. As a nation, we need to suck it up, cut spending, pay more in taxes and get our house in order.
---------------

But what do you think that they are going to really do to solve that in a month? Its not like they are going to stand by and not come to some agreement, no one actually believes that will happen, right? And if you do think it could really happen (whatever It means to you) , then i would like to know why. That's what I'm saying.

And spending is up so I wonder if again they have cried wolf for so long that people are like "whatever".


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Me GOP
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Posted: 11/27/2012 10:06:42 AM
Well for me it isn't a question of "solve." I agree with you they aren't going to solve much in a month. But I also know that I'm being very, very frugal as well as investing in blue chip over taking any stock risks right now until they do at least SOMETHING.

To me right now, it's all about investment and consumer confidence. If they don't do something where people can at least plan, then more hoarding and less economic movement.

At least that's how I look at it.


Tracey

raindancer
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Posted: 11/27/2012 10:08:31 AM
Sabrina, I know what's going on, but I still don't see how this is anything more than further delay of what I think was inevitable in 2008. And look where we are now. Banks are better off and even larger than before they were too big to fail, we have more debt and it has to be paid for somehow. This country is going to have to rip off the bandaid at some point.
This all just feels so "debt ceiling--we can't pay our bills!" Of 2011 to me.

Do you really think the govt isn't going to intercede in some way to soften blow or at least delay it?


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Posted: 11/27/2012 10:09:16 AM
In general I agree with you on this:

I'm so over our politicians playing us and the media and their drama.
Having said that, I do believe there will be devastating consequences if we continue to finance the rate of spending we're on and continue with programs that have huge increasing costs.


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Posted: 11/27/2012 10:14:25 AM

Do you really think the govt isn't going to intercede in some way to soften blow or at least delay it?


Not Sabrina, but to answer for myself. Yes, I think they will "extend" whatever they can extend and put off and not really do anything. But I think that will make the hoarding of corporate and personal cash continue, small business continue to be reserved in hiring, and economic recovery slows. Plus, I think the market will have a negative reaction to extensions.


Tracey

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Posted: 11/27/2012 10:41:05 AM

Sabrina, I know what's going on, but I still don't see how this is anything more than further delay of what I think was inevitable in 2008. And look where we are now. Banks are better off and even larger than before they were too big to fail, we have more debt and it has to be paid for somehow. This country is going to have to rip off the bandaid at some point.

I agree with you!

This country doesn't have a revenue problem. We have a spending problem! We spend too much money on entitlements (for starters). There is a LOT of government waste and ridiculous spending that goes on.

In my personal budget, when we need to restructure our finances, we cut spending-- no matter how small. Small cuts in spending add up! If that doesn't help us balance our budget, one of us goes out and gets another job to increase revenue. Increasing our income without decreasing our spending makes no sense. For some reason, the government doesn't see it like that.

Gov Waste Examples

Article on report from GAO (Dated 2011 but still on point)

2011 Government Wastebook


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Posted: 11/27/2012 11:01:44 AM

Montana cowgirl I would love to know what "worst case scenario" actually means


sorry Raindancer, had to bathe a 2 year old. Worst case scenario, is something that both sides fears enough to force them into compromising with the other rather than it happen.

Defense would have massive cuts as well as tax increases and new taxes would be imposed, which scares the hell out of the right and unemployment funds, tax breaks for the middle class and new taxes scare the left.

More importantly both sides know it will mean gradually throwing us back into a full on recession for 4 plus more years, something our country couldn't sustain.

Other countries WILL come for their money we owe, and there's no way we'd be able to pay them. I don't for one minute think this is all media hype, it scares both sides to much.

Any politician who isn't appearing scared is just putting on his poker face right now, because of negotiations that are in the works.


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Posted: 11/27/2012 11:27:58 AM
I totally agree with Stephi on this.

It's not a right/left thing. It is a reality and just a matter of seeing what our government does (or doesn't do) to keep it from being a complete disaster.

For the person that asked what the worst thing is (that could happen)? Take a look at Greece and the total collapse of their economy, banking, etc.

That is probably the worst thing that can happen.


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Posted: 11/27/2012 11:58:10 AM
Where is the talk about cutting government spending? The government can not raise taxes enough to pay for our spending and unfunded liabilities.
Its been three years since a budget was passed. All I know is that if my husband and I ran our household finances like the government runs theirs, we'd be declaring bankruptcy and our credit score would nosedive.
Revenue increases without spending cuts across the board won't do anything to avoid the cliff.


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raindancer
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Posted: 11/27/2012 12:18:02 PM

Other countries WILL come for their money we owe, and there's no way we'd be able to pay them. I don't for one minute think this is all media hype, it scares both sides to much.



Sure, but you don't think that this is actually going to be what happens in 34 days do you? This "cliff" is inevitable, and it doesn't matter at this point what we do because since Clinton we have been spending and not taxing at ridiculous rates.

Both sides should be scared, but I fear they really aren't *actually* scared. I think they want to make us think they are so that they can look good on the other side when they "fix" this.

And I'm sorry, but if Warren Buffet feels similarly, then I'm even more convinced that this is nothing more than hype to keep the media happy with advertising dollars and the politicians relevant.



It's not a right/left thing. It is a reality and just a matter of seeing what our government does (or doesn't do) to keep it from being a complete disaster.

For the person that asked what the worst thing is (that could happen)? Take a look at Greece and the total collapse of their economy, banking, etc.

That is probably the worst thing that can happen.




Sure. That could happen, and most likely in time? It will. It's historically likely that we will collapse as a great nation at some point. It isn't likely that the US is some how going to be immune. And I think we are too far gone to do much more than go forward and let the chips fall where they may. I have zero confidence that the "leadership" of this country can or will do anything more than what suits them for re-election purposes, which will only push things back another day. Eventually that will fail and we will crumble. I am in the camp of letting things play out now and going through some pain to right things. Sort of like letting your middle school student fail that math class now rather than letting them slide and having them fail in high school when it really matters.


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Posted: 11/27/2012 1:05:24 PM
I think people are mixing up a lot of different things in this thread. The "fiscal cliff" is absolutely real - and considering the dysfunctionality of Congress, I don't share some of the confidence expressed that it's not a very real possibility. There's enough pain on both the tax and spending side that both sides are going to want to negotiate - hopefully they will surprise me and actually do the hard work required and not just play political games. Now there's nothing to say that the changes could go into affect and then be modified weeks or even months later, before causing too much damage to the anemic recovery.

But the real question is the debt ceiling and how the negotiations with the fiscal cliff impact that negotiating and potentially the credit rating. I wouldn't be suprised if the fiscal cliff negotiations drag out until they run into the debt ceiling deadline - estimated to be in February.

I honestly hope that we don't see a repeat of the fiasco on the last negotiations that created the fiscal cliff to begin with - but unfortunately our elected leaders seem to excel at kicking problems down the road.

Many people are bringing up the unsustainability of our spending - while an issue, isn't the "fiscal cliff"

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Posted: 11/27/2012 1:07:34 PM
I am sure it is real. What I'm naively believing is that our government will pull their heads out of their asses and make sure we don't go over it.

Ideally, I'd like it done before the 11th hour, but we all know that won't happen.


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Posted: 11/28/2012 6:41:13 AM
I don't think people we believe it unless a deal isn't struck and we go over it in Jan. I'm not sure exactly what the "fiscal cliff" means because I think it's been overused and talked to death the past few years, but I got a little information about what it would mean personally to our household finances come 2013. Our tax people sent us a breakdown of 3 scenarios and how they would affect our taxes in January. If nothing is done, my husband and I are looking at worst case scenario a $700-$800 per month tax increase. That was before rumors of the mortgage interest deduction cropped up this week. If that were also on the table, we'd be paying out $1100 more per month. I don't think they will push through all of these things at once because it would be devastating.

I'm glad to finally get some answers as to what this means personally to our situation, but it's hard to swallow losing that much money every month.

A poster above mentioned high Christmas sales and financial gurus saying it was a result of people spending big now while they can before it's taken in taxes and I know this is merely anecdotal, but it's what we are doing in our household this year. We feel we will be unwilling or possibly unable to spend like this again in the future.

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Posted: 11/28/2012 8:19:04 AM

If nothing is done, my husband and I are looking at worst case scenario a $700-$800 per month tax increase. That was before rumors of the mortgage interest deduction cropped up this week. If that were also on the table, we'd be paying out $1100 more per month. I don't think they will push through all of these things at once because it would be devastating.




Can I ask, approximately what % of your pay is that $700 - $800 increase? I just ask because that number seems HUGE and it seems like you must have a very large monthly income for the tax increase to be that much. Are you looking at another 5% taken in taxes or is it like 25%? I'm sure probably somewhere in between there.

I appreciate this thread. I'll be honest and say I haven't really followed this issue, so it has been good to read up.



A poster above mentioned high Christmas sales and financial gurus saying it was a result of people spending big now while they can before it's taken in taxes and I know this is merely anecdotal, but it's what we are doing in our household this year. We feel we will be unwilling or possibly unable to spend like this again in the future.


This seems sort of counter productive... if people are worried about losing so much money in the coming years, wouldn't it be better to SAVE that extra money???

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Posted: 11/28/2012 8:30:24 AM

Oh I think we are going to go over it for no other reason than that our congress appears to be incompetent when it comes to the budget and we have foolishly allowed it.


And we (American citizens) keep electing the fools making these decisions (or lack of decisions). We will get what we deserve come January. Not just the "rich" but ALL OF US. Only when people start pulling their heads out of the sand and look at the mess this country has become will there ever be a change. Unfortunately, I don't expect to see this happen in my lifetime.



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Posted: 11/28/2012 9:28:37 AM
Who would be blamed if no deal is made

I do think they will come up with a solution before the end of the year if for no other reason than job security. People tend to remember these things when it comes to an election.

I wish they would do it sooner instead of later so the stock market will settle down.

The Republicans may have a new reasons to get this resolved asap. A poll says the majority of Americans will blame the Republicans if this can't be resolved. The attached document shows by how much the Repbulicans will be blamed. And what the public thinks about their plan for Medicare. Even amoung other Republicans about the changes to Medicare which I thought was kind of interesting.

Yes I know this is from Rachel Maddow but the numbers are from an ABC Poll and a week or so ago I say another poll pretty much saying the same thing. And I think it was a Pew Poll.

Nancie52
PeaFixture

PeaNut 452,927
January 2010
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Posted: 11/28/2012 9:58:53 AM

And we (American citizens) keep electing the fools making these decisions (or lack of decisions). We will get what we deserve come January. Not just the "rich" but ALL OF US. Only when people start pulling their heads out of the sand and look at the mess this country has become will there ever be a change. Unfortunately, I don't expect to see this happen in my lifetime.




TOUCHE`... well said..

squillen
Tier 1 Baking Pea

PeaNut 133,550
February 2004
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Loc: Hudson Valley, NY

Posted: 11/28/2012 10:02:12 AM
I think they should put women in charge of all things governmental. We can get more ish done in a day than 10 men put together.



Anna*Banana
:blink:

PeaNut 69,360
February 2003
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Posted: 11/28/2012 10:18:32 AM

Many people are bringing up the unsustainability of our spending - while an issue, isn't the "fiscal cliff"
I think many of us understand those are two different "cliffs". The immediate budget one, getting the most press lately, and the longer term spending cliff. I think it's hard to only talk about one fiscal issue without speaking to the other since they are intrinsically intertwined.


~ Anna ~

peamac
Ancient Ancestor of Pea

PeaNut 340,335
October 2007
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Loc: Colorado

Posted: 11/28/2012 10:28:13 AM

I am sure it is real. What I'm naively believing is that our government will pull their heads out of their asses and make sure we don't go over it.

Ideally, I'd like it done before the 11th hour, but we all know that won't happen.


Sadly, our government right now does not have a record of doing what's best for the country. That pay raise they gave for senior citizens a year or so ago? More than eaten up by higher costs due to medicare changes. They have less money now than they did before they got their raise. Cutting defense spending? Great- where are all the military people going to get jobs now? That just adds to the unemployment. Fewer people working and paying taxes, more people needing govt help. How can people be so blind to the logical consequences of their lack of budgeting?


PeaMac


scrapcat71
PeaAddict

PeaNut 307,844
April 2007
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Posted: 11/28/2012 10:50:33 AM

Can I ask, approximately what % of your pay is that $700 - $800 increase? I just ask because that number seems HUGE and it seems like you must have a very large monthly income for the tax increase to be that much. Are you looking at another 5% taken in taxes or is it like 25%? I'm sure probably somewhere in between there.


If no deal is struck, based on the tax tables I received this week, we will be pushed into the next tax bracket increasing by 3%. This, coupled with the payroll tax which will have to be taken out again at some point, brings me to roughly $700 additional per month. While I'm not comfortable posting our exact income, it's important to know that many many families making much less than we are are also jumping up with us into that next tax bracket.

This is why you might have heard that average households will see an estimated $3500 tax increase annually if no deal is struck. We are on the higher end of that income range and therefore looking at having to pay out about double that.

This whole "we won't raise taxes on those making under $250,000" is simply not true. We don't make near that amount.


This seems sort of counter productive... if people are worried about losing so much money in the coming years, wouldn't it be better to SAVE that extra money??


It does seem kind of counter-productive, but I would rather spend a lot of money this Christmas on my family and friends before it's being taken by the government and given out to everyone else or everything else that some politician deems fit come January. Does that make sense? When I say we went "big" on Christmas I'm talking a few thousand dollars. We have a decent enough savings that a few thousand is really not going to make that much difference in the future.

Captain K
AncestralPea

PeaNut 247,594
February 2006
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Posted: 11/28/2012 11:00:51 AM
Thanks scrapcat. I was trying to figure out how to ask that question without being nosy about your income. That answered what I was looking for and gave me some other items I can look up to learn more about how our family might be impacted. Ugh!!

They're doing so poorly with what they've already been given to manage - I don't want to give them thousands more out of my pocket every year.

scrapcat71
PeaAddict

PeaNut 307,844
April 2007
Posts: 1,280
Layouts: 10
Loc: Georgia

Posted: 11/28/2012 11:15:53 AM

Thanks scrapcat. I was trying to figure out how to ask that question without being nosy about your income. That answered what I was looking for and gave me some other items I can look up to learn more about how our family might be impacted. Ugh!!



You're welcome

I'm sure somebody's going to jump all over me for posting personal income numbers or accuse me of bragging. I'm not. Part of the reason I wanted to share just how big that tax increase could be for us is because it's going to be bad for so many people if they don't reach a deal. We are not the "rich". Not even close. It's really scary when you see the proposed tax tables. I hope this helps some people get an idea so they can plan accordingly.

WannaPea
No Peas for you ! Come back one year!

PeaNut 151,172
June 2004
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Posted: 11/28/2012 11:26:01 AM

I think they should put women in charge of all things governmental. We can get more ish done in a day than 10 men put together.


Cop's wife - Mom to one
"The invisible and the non-existent look very much alike." ~ Delos B. McKown
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